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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
2 points by kilroy123 on Dec 21, 2023 | hide | past | favorite | 6 comments


AGI won't happen

LLMs will improve asymptotically

Self driving will happen so badly it's put back in a box for another decade

Fusion experiments will get higher net energy yields but still won't be sustaining.

There may be a collision in LEO.

Increased launches mean at least some chance of fatality in ISS and other human space activity

Taiwan won't be invaded

Ukraine won't give up fighting

Covid will continue

Some small increments in cancer treatment will enter service.

5G and 6G will be boringly similar to existing data networking

More European economies will supply most energy during summer daylight hours from renewable sources.

The gulf stream won't disappear but will become less predictable

No jetpacks or flying electric taxis. Maybe more delivery robots, but not self driving taxis

X's bankers will demand Musk reign himself in and he'll ignore them.

The US election will be a torrid shitshow.

Labor will return to power in the UK just as most of Europe turns right and becomes more insular.


That’s a very broad and generic question to answer, but definitely the rich will continue to get richer and the poor will continue to be poorer.


Turmoil in the mideast

celebrities get divorced

middle aged white incel males fail to understand why hollywood keeps making movies for the small brown foreign females that vastly outnumber them for yet another year.

Yet another '3rd way' political movement whose real purpose is to peel off votes flowers during the summer and fall and then dies partway into november

Yet again pundits are treated like sages this week while it is forbidden to bring up what they said last week.

Food subscription service debutes, you pay a modest fee forever until you return to the store and shit out a weight equal to your purchases.

Mideastern superpower continues to be militarily untouchable until their enemies aquire 3, maybe 4 nukes.

Streamlined keyboards with only a single key that says 'BUY' are popular stocking stuffers.

America will continue to look more and more like the movie Bright. (we are the orcs)

A shadowy group starts giving thousands of 3D printed guns with 5 bullets each in them to the homeless. Millions of 2A fundies change their opinions overnight.

Children flock to a movie about quadrupeds, becomes huge hit.

Another generation will remain angry and sullun until they die instead of doing something.


Stocks keep going up, big tech companies keep getting bigger, bond yields remain the same or drift lower, inflation the same . Russia vs. Ukraine deadlocked. 2024 election very close in terms of Electoral College even though Biden wins popular vote, results may be contested.


> 2024 election very close in terms of Electoral College even though Biden wins popular vote, results may be contested.

Results will definitely be contested. Especially if Trump is running, but even if not. "Find every possible grounds and contest" is too ingrained now.

Currently, I'd say it's 50/50 whether the election leads to a direct clash between armed groups supporting opposing candidates. (Note that I just mean street violence, not a full-out civil war.)


Former Lt Gen Michael Flynn will be chosen to run as VP. Both he and Trump suffer the same 14th amendment complication, and the agenda will be for Flynn to try wresting control from the military between Election Day and inauguration.




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