0%, PRC won't allow US normalize ability to nationalize her companies, regardless if TikTok is legally based in Singapore, the geopolitics won't allow it. They'll likely retaliate by trying to heavily degrade a major US company with large PRC exposure like Apple or Tesla.
It will 100% be enforced if passed. There is marginal political will to pass this. There is no political will to bail out TikTok if ByteDance or Beijing throw a hissy fit.
The grandparent comment wasn’t asking about the likelihood of the US enforcing the ban (assuming the bill passes and TikTok refuses to divest). Obviously, the answer to that is somewhere near 100%.
The question was, assuming the bill passes, what’s the likelihood of TikTok deciding to divest (and thus remaining non-banned) vs. TikTok refusing to divest (and getting banned).
Got it. I think they get banned for a while and then fold. Unless Beijing decides to take a hard line, which they might, though hundreds of billions funds a lot of R&D [1].
