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Well, no. It makes a big difference:

1) If the exponent is >1, it doesn't make much difference. Everyone will catch "it," for whatever disease.

2) It makes sense to have interventions prioritized by ROI

3) Many interventions are individual, and there is no exponent. Should I, as a [doctor / immuno-compromised-individual / patient / etc.] wear a mask?



> It makes sense to have interventions prioritized by ROI

The thing about masks is that the investment is minimal. Those 5% are still an incredibly large number that makes it a non-brainier.

If it decreases another order of magnitude, it may need some analysis. The OP has a point, but it's way beyond the plausibility window.


As an individual I would not wear a mask to reduce infection risk by 5%. If it’s more like 90% then that’s something.


Masking during a pandemic is never just about individual risk. Collective action has an exponential effect on prevalence, so the real risk goes down by far more than 5%.

Not taking action to reduce risk of illness or death is irrational.


There's a trade-off between doing things you enjoy (or don't enjoy) and the risk of death, and it's a personal trade-off, not something that can be assessed rationally.


But those who are the most likely to be affected i.e. older and vulnerable people would.

So in fact whether you wear one or not is far less relevant.


You misunderstand the utility of masks, where it is significantly more an infected wearer of the mask who protects others by their wearing. So, being infections before you have symptoms is the problem, which is why people should - as is standard in Japan, for example - wear masks in public whenever they feel unwell or feel a 'cold' coming on.


First-world thinking.

A quality mask costs around $1. Per-capita GDP is about $33 per day worldwide. Or put another way, with 8 billion people in the world, a mask a day runs around $3 trillion annually.

The world is interconnected.

I like masks since, aside from viruses, they filter pollution and allergens. I feel a lot better post-2020. However, universal HEPA filters and covid masks are very much for the rich.


Don't masks have to be swapped way more than once per day to reach the perscribed efficiency? More like once every 30 minutes?


30 minutes? Definitely not.

More than once per day? It's complicated. There are two designs:

- Electrostatic masks work well so long as the mask remains charged (those are the 3M N95 ones). Efficiency drops as they become moist, especially. However, for good ones, even after extended use, it's still surprisingly high.

- Nano masks basically work forever. The initial efficiency is lower than electrostatic, but remains pretty good for longer than I'd want to use one.

For real-world use, I really prefer nano. Unless you're much more careful than I am, enough air leaks around the mask that I'm not sure there's a big difference between 99%, 95%, or even 80% filtration.

And the numbers are extremely conservative too -- they look at filtration around a few hundred nanometers, which is the worst-case. Most diseases come in on much larger droplets.

One thing which tends to be under-emphasized is that it's not binary. Viral load is important. A single virus particle probably won't cause an infection (it probably won't infect a cell, and if it does, your innate immune system will probably flush it). If it does cause an infection, your adaptive immune system has a lot of time to react, so it probably won't be a bad one.

This is even more true for pollution and allergens.

For my purposes, I find nano masks to be the right bang-for-the-buck. They're much more breathable too. And they handle environmentals like rain or sweat better.

The Asians are right; living in a big city, I've felt better since 2020, with masks, air quality monitors, and HEPA filters everywhere. I get sick less often, have milder seasonal allergies, and just generally do better.

On a related note, other aspects of air quality matter too: CO2 levels, humidity, etc.


No. I've been using N95s since the start of the pandemic and have spent a fair amount of time learning about them, e.g., reading the written material that comes with the box of masks, and I've never seen that kind of recommendation. The written materials say things like, "throw the mask away as soon as it becomes stained or discolored."

I use each of my masks for probably at least 10 hours before throwing it away, and I've never gotten covid except once (in Jan or Feb 2020) before I started wearing masks (in fact, before anyone in my country -- the US -- knew about covid).

(I have to write "probably" because I don't actually keep written records of how long I have each mask on. I rarely have one on for more than an hour at a time.)

I've used mainly 3M 8511 masks.

The most important distinction between mask models is that some models have valves / vents and some do not.

Hospitals use ones without valves. The lack of a valve means that the part of the mask that filters the air gets a lot more damp than it would if a value were present (because exhaled air is damp) which might drastically reduce how long the mask will last, so that might be why some hospitals instruct their employees to use a new mask for each new patient contact.


> The written materials say things like, "throw the mask away as soon as it becomes stained or discolored."

For some N95 masks, that's because they assume you are using it to block out particles that will accumulate on the mask, like paint droplets or sawdust or whatever.

In contrast, breath is mostly water vapor, and COVID-19 particles have a short-enough half-life that you can probably rotate between masks and be pretty safe.


> The most important distinction between mask models is that some models have valves / vents and some do not.

The most important distinctions also include:

1) Fit. This matters a lot.

2) Nano versus electrostatic technology.

3) Filtration level. "N95" advertised isn't always 95% in reality, and some are 99+%.

4) Impedance to airflow

#4 is more than just comfort it determines how much air goes around the mask.




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