Over the same time period, the value of existing homes, as measured by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (which measures the price of repeat same home sales) more than doubled.
I still don't know what point you are trying to make or refute.
If you asking why I think it is completely unrealistic to expect a 50% decline on a short timeline, there are tons of reasons. You have to ask why housing prices doubled, and ask how easy or likely those underlying conditions are to reverse.
1) First, US GDP/capita went up by 60% in those 11 years.[1]
2) Similarly, US inflation in those 11 years was 40% [2]
3) US urban population increased by 25 million in those 11 years [3]
4) Construction costs/sqft are up about 90% in those 11 years [4]
5) More generally, Most Americans have 30 year fixed rate mortgages. This means they can and will avoid selling at a loss, so prices are sticky.
These are all factors without "quick fixes". Slow change can happen, but the fundamentals are sticky. If my house burnt down, it would cost $1M in materials and labor to replace.
>You have to ask why housing prices doubled, and ask how easy or likely those underlying conditions are to reverse.
Massive monetary expansion via QE and low interest rates. Resolved by raising interest rates and taxes on wealth holders (and particularly those holding unused or underutilized real estate) to deflate the asset bubble.
Strongly disagree. That is an additional factor, but doesnt change most of the factors I mentioned. It doesnt change population or urbanization. It doesnt change the cost of labor or materials.
Underutilized RE is a red herring.
As long as construction costs remain high, supply remains low, and there are enough buyers that afford the price, you wont see changes.
Monetary expansion underlies and significantly influences if not drives, everything you mentioned (save the nature of US mortgages, which is still related in the sense of it being a part of financialization of as much of American life as possible). The QE boom drove immigration, and low interest rates drove hiring and wage inflation; the COVID bust dampening immigration, and the extremely low interest rates driving a hiring frenzy that was itself followed by mass layoffs when the FRF was raised, essentially proved this.
>Underutilized RE is a red herring.
So you've stated. Please prove it, at the very least showing how RE isn't underutilized (this is going to be difficult, because it is).
I agree expansion is an influence, as it impacts just about everything. It you look back to my core point, it is that the factors driving real-estate prices are unlikely to reverse in the short term, and certainly not enough to cut prices like the proposed 50% of price.
You would have to have major declines in the first 4 factors I mentioned. good luck unwinding worker salary, population, cost of materials to that degree.
