<< You should stop trying to predict the next crash.
Hmm? No. I will attempt to secure my own financial interest.
<< According to the study, most people (including institutional investors) consistently believe there is a >10% chance the market will crash in the next 6 months when historically the probability is only 1%
Historically is doing a fair amount of work here. I would argue there is little historical value to the data we face. Over the past few decades we went through through several mini revolutions ( industrial, information and whatever they end up calling now ) in terms of how we work, eat, communicate and, well, live.
All of these have upended how humans interact with the world effectively changing the calculus on the data that preceding it if not nullifying it altogether in some ways.
Your argument is to stop worrying since you are likely wrong anyway, by a factor of 10. I am saying is 1935 people also thought they have time to ride the wave.
Hmm? No. I will attempt to secure my own financial interest.
<< According to the study, most people (including institutional investors) consistently believe there is a >10% chance the market will crash in the next 6 months when historically the probability is only 1%
Historically is doing a fair amount of work here. I would argue there is little historical value to the data we face. Over the past few decades we went through through several mini revolutions ( industrial, information and whatever they end up calling now ) in terms of how we work, eat, communicate and, well, live.
All of these have upended how humans interact with the world effectively changing the calculus on the data that preceding it if not nullifying it altogether in some ways.
Your argument is to stop worrying since you are likely wrong anyway, by a factor of 10. I am saying is 1935 people also thought they have time to ride the wave.
edit: ok, need coffee. too many edits