Note: Not saying that this is applicable in the original post's situation. It's relevant to the parent comment though, and very useful in many situations, such as investing.
Yes, precisely. Although that's more about bet sizing for optimal return in the long run, not quite about binary choice of whether or not to play. But conceptually bang on, I had it in mind
Betting more than the Kelly fraction increases the risk of ruin, especially in the long run.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
Note: Not saying that this is applicable in the original post's situation. It's relevant to the parent comment though, and very useful in many situations, such as investing.