Perhaps a published academic research paper on the topic?

I do not have beliefs on this matter, I am interested in data. I would like to know what studies of graduate student intentions and outcomes

> Perhaps a published academic research paper on the topic?

I see what you (think you are) doing there. That would be a start

I am curious: What are your decision criteria?

Academic research papers are systematically flawed, true. But they form a part of the story of finding truth.

What do you use?