If anyone is going to make self driving work, the odds are stacked in Tesla's favor. They have more data and distribution than any of their competitors. If/when that day comes, a decade—or two—of relentlessly pursuing that goal while making hyper optimistic predictions will be entirely irrelevant.
Root for the ambitious… The alternative is to ignore or tear them down. And it doesn't appear to be very fun to be in either of those camps.
I literally jumped for joy yesterday when SpaceX achieved a major milestone along their ambitious path. It's been fun following along and cheering for them.
I feel similarly excited for Tesla when they demonstrate robots with incredible dexterity. Even if they're not fully autonomous. They will still be a game changer for workplace safety. Imagine sending one up an electrical tower ladder in Alaska to replace a tranformer while an operator uses FPV goggles and gloves to control the robot from an office building in Fairbanks over a Starlink connection. Or a robot enabling a scientist to take ice cores in Antarctica from the warmth of McMurdo Station. This scenario would provide enormous quantities of training data as well.
The baseline AI-powered mobility and object avoidance subroutines are enough to make that viable while falling back to remote, human control for 'high resolution', less routine tasks. This same principle applies to robotaxis… And perhaps many Teslas already on the road if they can be retrofitted with the appropriate networking equipment.
> If anyone is going to make self driving work, the odds are stacked in Tesla's favor.
How disconnected from reality are you to make this statement? https://waymo.com/blog/2024/06/waymo-one-is-now-open-to-ever... Waymo self-driving has been open to general public since June 2024 and Telsa still doesn't have full self driving technology and yet here you are claiming odds are stacked in Tesla's favor.
> I feel similarly excited for Tesla when they demonstrate robots with incredible dexterity.
Did you never hear about Boston dynamics? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF4DML7FIWk This is 3 years old video and Tesla's robots don't have as much dexterity as the robot from the video. And unlike Tesla's robot, Boston Dynamics robot is fully automated.
>> If anyone is going to make self driving work, the odds are stacked in Tesla's favor.
>
> How disconnected from reality are you to make this statement?
I suppose we all live in our own bubbles. I've not been to SF in many years. I've never seen a Waymo on the street. However, I've sat in a Tesla myself and watched it navigate the roads in my hometown. As have many others across the US. And so I feel rather connected with reality in that small, tangible way.
I should have been more precise with my words. By 'make self-driving work', I meant deploy that technology cheaply and widely. But retroactively I understand my clarification appears like I'm moving the goal posts. I alluded to that though: 'They have more data and distribution than any of their competitors.'
>> I feel similarly excited for Tesla when they demonstrate robots with incredible dexterity.
>
> Did you never hear about Boston dynamics?
I have, and I am also excited for them. I believe you missed my point about being happy for people trying to do difficult things.
Maybe. I guess another possibility is some people deliberately ignore evidence that doesn't fit their worldview for reasons that are yet unknown to me.
> However, I've sat in a Tesla myself and watched it navigate the roads in my hometown.
https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/autopilot
"Before using Autopilot, read your Owner's Manual for instructions and more safety information. While using Autopilot, it is your responsibility to stay alert, keep your hands on the steering wheel at all times and maintain control of your vehicle. "
This is not self driving.
> By 'make self-driving work', I meant deploy that technology cheaply and widely.
I see only one company deploying self-driving technology and that's not tesla.
I appreciate you sharing articles. Do you feel that we're trying to establish how well I see 'reality' or about Tesla's odds of deploying self-driving cheaply and widely. It feels like the former, but maybe I'm not being charitable enough in my reading of your posts.
Simply sharing the evidence that helped shape your own worldview does not necessarily invalidate mine. The first-hand evidence I shared supported my claim that Tesla has wide distribution, lots of data, and falls somewhere on the spectrum of self-driving (admittedly not fully autonomous).
The evidence you shared shows that Waymo has limited (but increasing) deployment, limited data (only the 3 metro areas), relatively little revenue, and—to its credit—fully autonomous driving capabilities under city-driving circumstances.
Waymo is taking a different development path and I'm rooting for them too.
But I'm still not convinced that the odds are in their favor. Can they build a relatively affordable car and especially their LIDAR system at scale? Will they be able to scale production before Tesla cracks the fully autonomous nut? I personally still think the odds are still in Tesla's favor. Note that I did not ever say: 'Tesla is the only one who can or will make self-driving work'.
> Root for the ambitious… The alternative is to ignore or tear them down.
Some resources are mostly zero-sum, support being one. That means that buying their product or even buying their stock means not supporting their competitors.
At this point, after so many hollow promises from Tesla, why shouldn't the money support plenty of other competitors as well?
I love my Model Y, and the supercharger network. The charger network in the US is so much better than any of the competitors in terms of reliability, why would I support the others? The other car manufacturers constantly roll back their hollow promises to electrification, while Tesla has been all-in since day 1. Why would I support Tesla's competitors? VW lied and lied about the emissions their cars put out, why would I ever buy a VW car? On and on... I'm happy with my choice of a Model Y, and I'm not compelled at this point to choose a competitor for our second or next car.
It was a difficult conversation when I had to explain to my children that my love and support for them was zero-sum.
I.e., I think you missed my point about being happy for people attempting to do something difficult and celebrating their successes. I can root for them as much as I please and it doesn't hurt a soul.
I'm afraid you're arguing against something I didn't say.
They certainly do. Those Mercedes don’t have all the cameras and sensors and are not recording it all and sending it back to HQ.
For the newer cars that do there was an awesome post on HN from someone who consulted with them and they had a single server at HQ with a single thread to capture all this data.
They had no idea why it wasn’t working.
Root for the ambitious… The alternative is to ignore or tear them down. And it doesn't appear to be very fun to be in either of those camps.
I literally jumped for joy yesterday when SpaceX achieved a major milestone along their ambitious path. It's been fun following along and cheering for them.
I feel similarly excited for Tesla when they demonstrate robots with incredible dexterity. Even if they're not fully autonomous. They will still be a game changer for workplace safety. Imagine sending one up an electrical tower ladder in Alaska to replace a tranformer while an operator uses FPV goggles and gloves to control the robot from an office building in Fairbanks over a Starlink connection. Or a robot enabling a scientist to take ice cores in Antarctica from the warmth of McMurdo Station. This scenario would provide enormous quantities of training data as well.
The baseline AI-powered mobility and object avoidance subroutines are enough to make that viable while falling back to remote, human control for 'high resolution', less routine tasks. This same principle applies to robotaxis… And perhaps many Teslas already on the road if they can be retrofitted with the appropriate networking equipment.