> I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one
It's interesting to be usually cautious but then predict something so radical, and yet with no real argument other than "AI is gonna replace us".
Painting should have been replaced by photography, but it hasn't been. In my opinion, there are still plenty of people who want to write, so there will still be plenty of people who know how to write.
And maybe my opinion is wrong, because it's an opinion. But to have to transform it to a certainty, I'd have to see much, much more data than a feeling and a conviction.
I'm not a photographer, but a musician. I won't say that musicians have been replaced by automation, but the ability of someone to earn a living from their abilities as a musician has been eroded considerably over the past century. The preservation and advancement of many musical styles is occurring primarily in living rooms, or is performed for tiny audiences of enthusiasts. I'm happy to help keep jazz alive in that way.
Writing may become the same thing. In the workplace, if someone is writing, they're probably doing it for their own entertainment. Some people write at home, writing journals, blogs, etc. Nobody will know that you're writing, unless it affects your thinking, and your thinking affects your work.
I think we already reached the stage where people stopped writing, before AI entered the picture. I rarely see anybody write a lengthy report any more. Reports have been replaced by PowerPoint, chat, e-mail, etc. One consequence is that knowledge is quickly lost. Or, it's developed by writing, but is communicated verbally.
It's interesting to be usually cautious but then predict something so radical, and yet with no real argument other than "AI is gonna replace us".
Painting should have been replaced by photography, but it hasn't been. In my opinion, there are still plenty of people who want to write, so there will still be plenty of people who know how to write.
And maybe my opinion is wrong, because it's an opinion. But to have to transform it to a certainty, I'd have to see much, much more data than a feeling and a conviction.