That's a decent analysis of the things this "thought experiment" doesn't address. I'm not a chemist but I think in a sea of AT and GC pairs even mixed with water, the ability to find every random sequence possible is near certainty:
Especially when you multiply by the number of swimming pools of all ocean water (10^14) by the number of minutes of the history of Earth (10^15), and consider that the probability of the accidental 50 base pair replicator forming needs to have those 29 extra zeroes, in the numerator (not the denominator). So the likelihood, now that I add more info, has just gone up 29 orders of magnitude. lol. (BTW. the 1 minute assumption will be temperature dependent, and is a guess at how long it takes reactions to take place).
The whole thing is a rough approximation like the Drake Equation is, and each number is an estimate. If you want to attack the Thought Experiment, at it's weakest point, just question the initial assumption, which is the biggest guess of all, that some unique 50 base pair RNA can replicate itself.
Especially when you multiply by the number of swimming pools of all ocean water (10^14) by the number of minutes of the history of Earth (10^15), and consider that the probability of the accidental 50 base pair replicator forming needs to have those 29 extra zeroes, in the numerator (not the denominator). So the likelihood, now that I add more info, has just gone up 29 orders of magnitude. lol. (BTW. the 1 minute assumption will be temperature dependent, and is a guess at how long it takes reactions to take place).
The whole thing is a rough approximation like the Drake Equation is, and each number is an estimate. If you want to attack the Thought Experiment, at it's weakest point, just question the initial assumption, which is the biggest guess of all, that some unique 50 base pair RNA can replicate itself.