From 2022 stats:
Roughly 4 million students in each grade in the US.
8th,9th,10th,11th & 12th graders = 20 million.
So 20 million students are eligible for AMC10/AMC12
Of them, only 300K took the AMC10/AMC12
Of them, only 10K were invited to take the AIME
Of them, only 500 were invited to take the USAMO
Of them, only 50 went to the MOPs
Of them, only 6 went to the IMO & won.
The article is about 4th & 8th graders, of which we have 8 million.
Now, suppose those 4th graders get to 8th grade, then the 8th graders would be in 12. That makes both cohorts eligible for AMC10/12. At that point, they become 8 million out of the 20 million. So 120K of them take the AMCs, 4K take the AIME, 200 get into USAMO, 20 get invited into the MOPs, and best case 2 kids make it into the IMO.
So from this grand experiment, 2 kids will emerge the victor, and we are supposed to back-extrapolate that 8 million kids do ok. Aaalright then.../s
8th,9th,10th,11th & 12th graders = 20 million.
So 20 million students are eligible for AMC10/AMC12
Of them, only 300K took the AMC10/AMC12
Of them, only 10K were invited to take the AIME
Of them, only 500 were invited to take the USAMO
Of them, only 50 went to the MOPs
Of them, only 6 went to the IMO & won.
The article is about 4th & 8th graders, of which we have 8 million.
Now, suppose those 4th graders get to 8th grade, then the 8th graders would be in 12. That makes both cohorts eligible for AMC10/12. At that point, they become 8 million out of the 20 million. So 120K of them take the AMCs, 4K take the AIME, 200 get into USAMO, 20 get invited into the MOPs, and best case 2 kids make it into the IMO.
So from this grand experiment, 2 kids will emerge the victor, and we are supposed to back-extrapolate that 8 million kids do ok. Aaalright then.../s