I might be too optimistic but I think LLMs will basically replace the worst and most junior devs, while the job of anyone with 5 or 10+ years of experience will be babysitting AI codevelopers, instead of junior developers.
I find a lot of good use for LLMs but it's only as a multiplier with my own effort. It doesn't replace much anything of what I do that actually requires thought. Only the mechanical bits. So that's the first thing I ensure: I'm not involved in "plumbing software development". I don't plug together CRUD apps with databases, backend apis and some frontend muck. I try to ensure that at least 90% of the actual code work is about hard business logic and domain specific problems, and never "stuff that would be the same regardless of whether this thing is about underwear or banking".
If I can delegate something to it, it's every bit as difficult as delegating to another developer. Something we all know is normally harder than doing the job yourself. The difference between AI Alice and junior dev Bob, is that Alice doesn't need sleep. Writing specifications, reviewing changes and ensuring Alice doesn't screw up is every bit as hard as doing the same with Bob.
And here is the kicker: whenever this equation changes, that we have some kind of self-going AI Alice, then we're already at the singularity. Then I'm not worried about my job, I'll be in the forest gathering sticks for my fire.
I find a lot of good use for LLMs but it's only as a multiplier with my own effort. It doesn't replace much anything of what I do that actually requires thought. Only the mechanical bits. So that's the first thing I ensure: I'm not involved in "plumbing software development". I don't plug together CRUD apps with databases, backend apis and some frontend muck. I try to ensure that at least 90% of the actual code work is about hard business logic and domain specific problems, and never "stuff that would be the same regardless of whether this thing is about underwear or banking".
If I can delegate something to it, it's every bit as difficult as delegating to another developer. Something we all know is normally harder than doing the job yourself. The difference between AI Alice and junior dev Bob, is that Alice doesn't need sleep. Writing specifications, reviewing changes and ensuring Alice doesn't screw up is every bit as hard as doing the same with Bob.
And here is the kicker: whenever this equation changes, that we have some kind of self-going AI Alice, then we're already at the singularity. Then I'm not worried about my job, I'll be in the forest gathering sticks for my fire.