I dont think pain is the possible problem, total collapse is. Russia does everything to hide any pain and problems. Banks are forced to accept loans from soldiers and military adjacent companies while being prohibited from calling them in. The capital controls. The private sector is mostly gone, there is no local car manufacturing any more. 21% interest rates with an official 10% inflation. The increasing lack of official economic data being released...

Hard to tell, and I am not convinced if even the Kremlin has a good overview. In the end it does not matter that much. If Russia is really that robust then they wont stop attacking and if they are bluffing then Ukraine should not stop defending itself.