> If, say, Republicans drafted a bill to split red rural areas off CA into its own state, as often proposed, what sane Democrat would ever support it knowing that it means +2 Republican senators in Congress?
> The only way it could possibly work out is if states are carved out in pairs - e.g. separate deep red areas from CA, but at the same time also do the same for deep blue areas of Texas. But deep blue areas also tend to be the ones that bring in the most taxes, so Texas Republicans might balk at that on economic grounds...
Couldn't they find some way of splitting CA into 3 states, two "blue" and one "red", such that you'd get two new Democratic Senators and two new Republican Senators, which would cancel each other out?
> For the same reason, we aren't going to see statehood for Puerto Rico or DC anytime soon.
Puerto Rico isn't a solid lock for the Democrats. PR's new Governor, Jenniffer González-Colón, is a Republican, and prior to becoming the Governor, she was PR's non-voting delegate to Congress. Of course, it would be a gamble for the GOP, but not one they'd be guaranteed to lose. Especially if you consider Trump has made significant inroads with Hispanic voters over the last two elections, and the GOP might do even better if they were to pick a Hispanic candidate.
DC, I agree it is unlikely Republicans would agree to it.
But, admission of a new state only needs a simple majority of Congress – in a Democratic trifecta, like Biden had 2021–2023, or Obama had in 2009–2011 – that DC or PR statehood didn't happen then was ultimately due to decisions made by the Democrats, not by the Republicans – if the Democrats had been totally committed to it, it would have happened over Republican objections – but obviously they weren't.
A Democratic trifecta could easily happen again – e.g. Trump II turns out to be really unpopular, and Democrats have a big win in 2028 – but will Democrats do anything more about PR/DC statehood in 2029–2031 than they did in 2009–2011 or 2021–2023? I doubt.
> The only way it could possibly work out is if states are carved out in pairs - e.g. separate deep red areas from CA, but at the same time also do the same for deep blue areas of Texas. But deep blue areas also tend to be the ones that bring in the most taxes, so Texas Republicans might balk at that on economic grounds...
Couldn't they find some way of splitting CA into 3 states, two "blue" and one "red", such that you'd get two new Democratic Senators and two new Republican Senators, which would cancel each other out?
> For the same reason, we aren't going to see statehood for Puerto Rico or DC anytime soon.
Puerto Rico isn't a solid lock for the Democrats. PR's new Governor, Jenniffer González-Colón, is a Republican, and prior to becoming the Governor, she was PR's non-voting delegate to Congress. Of course, it would be a gamble for the GOP, but not one they'd be guaranteed to lose. Especially if you consider Trump has made significant inroads with Hispanic voters over the last two elections, and the GOP might do even better if they were to pick a Hispanic candidate.
DC, I agree it is unlikely Republicans would agree to it.
But, admission of a new state only needs a simple majority of Congress – in a Democratic trifecta, like Biden had 2021–2023, or Obama had in 2009–2011 – that DC or PR statehood didn't happen then was ultimately due to decisions made by the Democrats, not by the Republicans – if the Democrats had been totally committed to it, it would have happened over Republican objections – but obviously they weren't.
A Democratic trifecta could easily happen again – e.g. Trump II turns out to be really unpopular, and Democrats have a big win in 2028 – but will Democrats do anything more about PR/DC statehood in 2029–2031 than they did in 2009–2011 or 2021–2023? I doubt.