Based on the speed most companies operate at - no surprises here. The internet also didn't have most of its impact in the first decade. And as is fairly well understood, most of the current generation of AI models are a bit dicey in practice. There isn't much of a question that this early phase where AI is likely to create new jobs and opportunities. The real question is what happens when AI is reliably intellectually superior to humans in all domains and it has been proven to everyone's satisfaction, which is still some uncertain time away.
It is like expecting cars to replace horses before anyone starts investing in the road network and getting international petroleum supply chains set up - large capital investment is an understatement when talking about how long it takes to bring in transformative tech and bed it in optimally. Nonetheless, time passed and workhorses are rare beasts.
At the end of the massive investment period, about a trillion dollars of broadband, fiber and cellular build out between 1998 and 2008, that infrastructure had already added a trillion back to the economy and would add that much nearly every year after. LLM AI is nearing 10 years of massive investment, approaching $1T. Where are the trillions in returns. And what amazing economy-wide impacting infrastructure will that trillion in AI investment leave us with when the bubble pops and these AI companies are sold for parts and scrap and the not-AI companies boosting AI all pull back? When the dot com boom collapsed, we still got value from all that investment that continues to lead the global economy today. What will LLMs leave us with?
My absolutely unqualified opinion is that blockchain will survive but won't find much uses apart from those it already has; while the metaverse- or vr usage and contents- will have an explosive growth at some point, especially when mixed with AI generated and rendered worlds- which will be lifelike and almost infinitely flexible. Which btw, is also a great way to spend your time when your job has been replaced by another AI and you have little money for anything else.
If they end up going somewhere? Absolutely, we haven't seen anything out of the crypto universe yet compared to what'll start to happen when the tech is a century old and well understood by the bankers.
It is like expecting cars to replace horses before anyone starts investing in the road network and getting international petroleum supply chains set up - large capital investment is an understatement when talking about how long it takes to bring in transformative tech and bed it in optimally. Nonetheless, time passed and workhorses are rare beasts.