> I've seen no justification for the government deciding that from 2022 on we should actively discourage R&D, it just seems to be a mistake.
Removing a specific tax exemption to create a level playing field isn’t discouraging R&D.
That’s the thing, every year such exemptions exist the US taxpayers are handing out money. Just because we subsidize say EV’s or Corn doesn’t mean that’s the baseline forever more.
> Removing a specific tax exemption to create a level playing field isn’t discouraging R&D.
If the end result of removing this exemption is that there is less R&D done in the US, then yes, empirically, removing the exemption discourages R&D. Assuming the mass layoffs were indeed fueled by the removal of this exemption (I don't know if the article is correct or not), then it is reasonable to assert that it is true that removing the exemption has reduced the amount of R&D done.
Or, you could also say that the "default state" is some low level of R&D, and the tax exemption encouraged and incentivized more of it.
Either way you slice it, though, the status quo prior to 2022 was some level of encouraged/incentivized R&D. That status quo changed to encourage/incentivize less R&D, and companies have followed these lack of incentives and have fired a lot of their R&D staff. Is that a good thing for the US? I can't see how it could be.
> empirically, removing the exemption discourages R&D.
Not clearing a road means fewer people use it, but you not going out with a shovel to clear a public roads isn’t you discouraging their use nor is you canceling your plans to clear said roads.
It didn’t create a level playing field, it just discouraged a very specific type of R&D while ignoring all others. All other types of employee salaries follow certain rules and some can optionally follow R&D rules. Software is now the only one required to follow 5 year R&D amortization so the deck is now stacked against software.
The default situation is whatever was yesterday. I’d be astonished to learn that even a single significant civilization functioned without subsidies or patronage of priorities held by a society’s leaders.
Those subsidies lasted a long time, but just as with a TV they didn’t last forever.
So if your argument is some subsidy will probably happen next year sure, but individual subsidies change over time. No specific subsidy is the default.
Level playing field for whom? Who does incentivizing R&D disadvantage?
Restaurants weren't competing with R&D-heavy corporations in any way. R&D-heavy corporations competed with each other, on a level playing field where all of them can build new stuff without having to pay taxes on negative income in their early years.
The only change this has made is un-level the playing field in favor of old, established corporations that already have the revenue streams in place to fund their new R&D projects.
Taxpayers who end up with the bill and every company is competing for workers, office space, etc. Incentives across decades shift what people study, what business get created, etc. R&D sounds great abstractly, but it’s not some panacea where unlimited funding results in pure gains.
The economy is generally more efficient without central planning, and dumping money into anything that can be classified as R&D is simply inefficient.
> every company is competing for workers, office space, etc
My company is all-remote and none of us would work for a company that isn't doing R&D. Most of an entire profession now has to be amortized over 5 years.
> The economy is generally more efficient without central planning
The old tax code isn't "central planning", it just had the very reasonable property that the government wouldn't force you to pay taxes on a loss.
This scenario [0] is now possible. It wasn't before. That is a catastrophic level of stupidity, and you can't justify it with invisible-hand nonsense.
> none of us would work for a company that isn't doing R&D
So you’d just be unemployed for the rest of your lives? That’s a possible edge case not worth adjusting the tax code for, but it seems unlikely.
> wouldn't force you to pay taxes on a loss.
R&D is an investment, you only pay taxes if the rest of the company is profitable.
If your company is spending 1M / year on R&D and not adding 800k in long term value then in theory you’d be correct. But at that point you either aren’t doing R&D, or are doing such a poor job of it that the government shouldn’t be encouraging that activity.
The problem here is that all software development (excepting that done for hire) is classified as R&D. The software developer working on your Wordpress or Magento site (and arguably the accountant building a spreadsheet, to take the statute at face value) isn't an operational expense, they're now an R&D expense that has to be amortized and can't be taken as an expense against revenue. Previously, this was an optional choice (and many large and mature companies were amortizing anyway), but under the current tax treatment it's required, which essentially turns early-stage startups into cash bonfires, given how many small companies don't make it to year five.
As a practical measure it’s really not. The transition is difficult for existing companies, but a future startup is going to be minimally impacted.
Year 0 you’re unlikely to have any profits, future years you have multiple years of R&D to offset with.
But let’s assume the worst case. Taxes are 21% of profits and at minimum deduction 20% of R&D so the theoretical maximum distribution is 0.8 * 0.21 = 16.8% increase in R&D expenses if profits = R&D year 0. But that maximum case is only year 0, you’d be able to fund R&D with those same profits and easily be profitable after that.
If profits where say 40% of R&D in year 0 you’d have to pay 16.8% of 40% so an increase is only 6.72% hardly likely to tank the business if it’s already generating that kind of income year 0, and again after that point you’ll deduct for multiple years.
More realistic numbers are going to be really low multiples here, more importantly they represent significant investments not operating expenses.
> Year 0 you’re unlikely to have any profits, future years you have multiple years of R&D to offset with.
You're only unlikely to have no profits if you have no revenue. And you only get to break even 5 years in, which most startups will never reach.
In practice what is likely going to happen is that we'll see more and more startups deliberately avoid revenue in the early days. More and more free tiers followed by rug pulls when revenue actually becomes an asset rather than a liability.
There is no unplanned economy, only different outcomes from better or worse plans. And I'm having a hard time imagining a worse plan than one that intentionally disincentivizes businesses from adopting a sustainable business model early in their lifetime.
> unlikely to have no profits if you have no revenue.
It’s much easier to have revenue than profits, set the price lower and suddenly zero profit. Some company avoiding profits because of the 21% tax on profit like that would be mathematically dumb.
> There is no unplanned economy, only different outcomes from better or worse plans. And I'm having a hard time imagining a worse plan than one that intentionally disincentivizes businesses from adopting a sustainable business model early in their lifetime.
There’s zero advantage to avoiding revenue or profit here. You’re tilting at windmills.
You simply need less investor money for R&D when other parts of the company are profitable. As to central panning, the mistake you just made is mitigated when many people are all independently making plans. Governments always need to get it right, the market is fine if some people get it right and therefore can reinvest in their success.
It sounds like you’re talking about government funding of research? This is about private companies funding the costs of making product ideas into actual sellable products.
Are you asserting that software and other labor-heavy startups should raise additional private capital so that they can pay taxes before they’ve established themselves in the marketplace? I’m not sure what you mean to say exactly.
I’m saying investers should pay the full cost of R&D without assistance from taxpayers.
When the non R&D portion of the business is profitable they should start paying taxes. Assuming a company isn’t miss classifying operations as R&D it shouldn’t be a major issue.
This will of course discourage “riskier” startups and dampen innovation and give more power to profitable incumbents who will have less incentive to innovate. (Perhaps the result of this looks like Europe?)
What specifically do you disagree with? That R&D is an investment? I mean outside of the tax code that’s what it means to do R&D.
As to my other point, the highest risk category of startup has zero customers for years they also have zero revenue, zero profit, and zero taxes to pay here. On the 5th year they can deduct R&D from each of those years making the net effect on them minimal vs a startup with profits on year 0.
> The economy is generally more efficient without central planning
Big fat "citation needed" there. I know you chose the term "central planning" to try to invoke the communism boogeyman, but overall, free markets do not exist, and have never existed. Governments constantly use various levers (taxation being one of them) to encourage or discourage certain kinds of business activity. This is nothing new, and I find it laughable to suggest that this kind of thing should be done away with entirely.
There’s a lot of evidence for this outside of communism. Housing markets for example are a clear example of economic inefficiency created by subsides. But you also see problems with farm subsidies, flood insurance, and a host of other related issues.
Markets operate on revealed preferences, which is just a massive advantage in terms of giving people what they want. There’s definitely a role for governments in economies around information asymmetry, safety, etc, but allocation of resources specifically doesn’t work well.
Removing a specific tax exemption to create a level playing field isn’t discouraging R&D.
That’s the thing, every year such exemptions exist the US taxpayers are handing out money. Just because we subsidize say EV’s or Corn doesn’t mean that’s the baseline forever more.