Yes, you have. You have an asset of greater value which you can leverage in a number of ways without liquidating it and "realizing" the gains. That's a real gain, with real value.
> you could be taxed over and over again
Only if you make new unrealized gains.
> and if the stick drops or hits zero then what?
Then you have a negative unrealized gain, or, equivalently, an unrealized loss. If you are taxing unrealized gains instead of taxing gains when realized, then the natural assumption would be, just as is done with taxing gains at realization, that negative unrealized gains are either offset against current income or against future unrealized gains, and so effectively create (considered on their own) negative (current or future) taxes. The simplest form of this is to offset only against future gains, by the simple mechanism that when gains are recognized for tax purposes, they adjust the basis value of the asset, and when unrealized losses occur, they don't effect the basis value at all, so you don't have a taxable unrealized gain again until the market value exceeds the basis value established at the prior peak.
More complex versions would allow you to offset some or all of the unrealized loss from the prior basis value against current income of other forms, but the amount of that offset would reduce the basis value of the asset.
The unrealized value is notional, not actual. This is a very important distinction. The notional value is often not remotely realizable. In many cases, the realizable value can be a tiny fraction of the notional value.
Most laypeople grossly conflate notional and real value. Taxing notional value massively inflates the adverse impact of tax incidence on expected returns relative to people’s casual intuition based on the relative tax rates for realized and unrealized gains.
A tax on unrealized gains is in effect a way of laundering a steep tax rate so that it looks “small” and therefore reasonable to the unsophisticated.
No, its an actual thing, measurable by some mechanism. Otherwise, this would be a non-discussion, as taxing it would be impossible, not a possible thing that we can argue about the merits of.
> The notional value is often not remotely realizable.
Whether it is or is not immediately realizable is immaterial to the desirability of taxing it; it may be material to designing the forms of taxation that should be acceptable. E.g., if the difficulty of realizing the value is, across the tax base, likely to making collecting the tax in cash or equivalents difficult, it would argue for permitting a fallback option for the tax to be collected in-kind, e.g., by the taxing jurisdiction acquiring a proportional interest in the asset equal to the share of the value of the asset represented by the taxes not paid by other means.
> A tax on unrealized gains is in effect a way of laundering a steep tax rate so that it looks “small” and therefore reasonable to the unsophisticated.
If you allow carry forwarded losses, even just by the simple method of adjusting basis values, and include taxes on realized gains (and carry forward, offsetting against current income with perhaps a negative net, etc., for realized losses), then taxing unrealized gains is identical to taxing realized gains if the gains are eventually realized, but simply avoids the ability to find maneuvers to benefit from leveraging the value of the asset without paying taxes by avoiding realization. It doesn't make a "steep" tax rate look small, it makes the tax rate look like exactly what it actually is, unlike taxing only realized gains, which makes an effectively non-existent tax on capital gains look like something more, when people can benefit from assets without realizing the gains.
For many assets, like real estate, there are liquid markets with market prices. There are a number of US states that already tax based on real estate value, you can dispute the assessed value but that impacts other things like insured value.
Being difficult to assess value is a problem they’ll make you pay an accountant for and punish you if you get it wrong, it’s not going to stop them.
In the US, most recent studies of asset portfolios suggest that 60-70% of notional asset value has no liquid market. We already generate fictitious valuations for compliance purposes in many cases (e.g. 409A) that no one confuses with being representative of actual value. Tax policy based on overt fiction is bad policy.
Even in the case of real estate, a large amount of value is locked up in extremely non-liquid markets. You might get a vaguely representative market-clearing transaction once per decade, with high price volatility that makes it nearly impossible to predict what the next market clearing transaction will look like. I’ve owned assets in these types of non-liquid markets; differences in subjective valuations can vary by an order of magnitude and there is no evidence from the market to support any of those values.
If you only include extremely liquid markets for tax purposes in order to make valuations vaguely plausible, assets will be made non-liquid such that they are excluded from consideration. Ultimately this is why taxes on unrealized gains have been a challenging proposition in practice. We have no way to accurately model realizable value for the majority of assets and current simple approaches produce extremely wrong estimates a substantial percentage of the time.
They’ll make up a number and make you spend money proving otherwise. The government won’t care about your inconvenience when they need the money.
Of course this is a prediction of something that hasn’t happened before but looking at the chess prices move this does appear to be an intended destination.
That isn’t the asset valuation, that is the range of assessments interested parties make with respect to asset value. Because market clearing transactions are rare in many asset markets, those extremely high variance estimates of asset value are all you have to work with. It is only marginally better than no information at all. Too make matters worse, the rare transactions in these markets frequently have a lot of complicated structure such that the nominal price is not reflective of the underlying value.
tl;dr: Many assets have no meaningfully assessable fair market value. These are investments with extremely long and indefinite time horizons before the asset value can be assessed in a reasonable way. You can look at it as a peculiar type of risk capital portfolio with an extraordinarily long time horizon.
Yes, you have. You have an asset of greater value which you can leverage in a number of ways without liquidating it and "realizing" the gains. That's a real gain, with real value.
> you could be taxed over and over again
Only if you make new unrealized gains.
> and if the stick drops or hits zero then what?
Then you have a negative unrealized gain, or, equivalently, an unrealized loss. If you are taxing unrealized gains instead of taxing gains when realized, then the natural assumption would be, just as is done with taxing gains at realization, that negative unrealized gains are either offset against current income or against future unrealized gains, and so effectively create (considered on their own) negative (current or future) taxes. The simplest form of this is to offset only against future gains, by the simple mechanism that when gains are recognized for tax purposes, they adjust the basis value of the asset, and when unrealized losses occur, they don't effect the basis value at all, so you don't have a taxable unrealized gain again until the market value exceeds the basis value established at the prior peak.
More complex versions would allow you to offset some or all of the unrealized loss from the prior basis value against current income of other forms, but the amount of that offset would reduce the basis value of the asset.