> The argument is that this stuff will so radically improve senior engineer productivity that the demand for junior engineers will crater.
What makes people think that an increase in senior engineer productivity causes demand for junior engineers to decrease?
I think it will have the opposite effect: an increase in senior engineer productivity enables the company to add more features to its products, making it more valuable to its customers, who can therefore afford to pay more for the software. With this increase in revenue, the company is able to hire more junior engineers.
What makes people think that an increase in senior engineer productivity causes demand for junior engineers to decrease?
I think it will have the opposite effect: an increase in senior engineer productivity enables the company to add more features to its products, making it more valuable to its customers, who can therefore afford to pay more for the software. With this increase in revenue, the company is able to hire more junior engineers.