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It's not just carrying cost, it could be the full A&D cost, so you're paying the loan on the mortgage without being able to build anything. That's huge and has sunk major projects around me. This happens, literally all the time [1][2][3], all around the country.

What's more, the fear of doing this has basically staved off all but the most brave companies, or giant conglomerates that can buy land cash, which is the most predictable byproduct of excessive regulation at a local level like this.

[1]: https://jerseydigs.com/american-dream-owners-default-on-1-2-...

[2]: https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2023/11/08/one-camelback...

[3]: https://www.reddit.com/r/sanfrancisco/comments/y2ein5

"The issue is that extended timelines drive down the IRR and add risk which is not the same as being expensive to carry."

Confusing statement, the IRR is low and the risk is high because the carrying cost is unknown (and unbounded).



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