TSMC is not going to get over the 50% threshold because it has no free will in this whole matter, as the very existence of Taiwan, and hence of TSMC, depends on the political will of the US.
Otherwise I fully agree with you, this will definitely not work out in the long run, but who cares about the long run anymore in this day and age?
But they have to try, right? Otherwise as you say, they are essentially operating under Rubio and Trump's control as a tool of the State Department.
The other important thing about this is that it dirties Intel almost immediately with presidential cheeto dust. So the value is going to fall over the long term, and this isn't the last sell-off they will have to do. Can you stop TSMC or a stalking horse for TSMC buying up parts of the rest?
Why would China annexing Taiwan have any direct effect on TSMC ?
I'd imagine they would be happy to have TSMC still selling to NVidia, Apple and AMD, and therefore a powerful lever in case of future US export controls/etc.
because even without deliberate sabotage a war in Taiwan would shut TSMC down for at least a decade. Changing the toilet paper supplier can drop yield by 20% until they sort it out. How do you think a warzone will affect it?
TSMC built a fab in Arizona that in 2 years was up and running delivering chips to Apple, so it doesn't take that long ...
Obviously a protracted or nasty war would have a severe impact, but it's hard to see why China would want to harm TSMC, even if worse case for US they stopped them from exporting.
you're assuming way less action from the US than there would actually be. it's not about the exports, it's about the supply chain to supply a fab. they need euv machines, wafers, thousands of specifically sourced chemicals etc.
it's not about what China wants, it's just not feasible to operate a fab in a warzone
Otherwise I fully agree with you, this will definitely not work out in the long run, but who cares about the long run anymore in this day and age?