With this administration, it's probably just more blackmail, in the form of "it would be a pity if nobody came to the rescue when China eventually puts its Taiwan plans in motion! (Not that playing ball is a guarantee of anything either)".
Every promise of this administration is worthless, so why even bother? Either they protect you, because they don't want the chip tech to fall to China or they don't.
Buying half of Intel isn't going to change anything
People will forever take every bluff and proposition at face value though so it gets exhausting following online discourse, where everyone is trying to rationalize it at face value or spinning it into some grander conspiratorial geopolitical scheme. Doesn’t seem to matter how many times the outcome is dramatically different than the starting point with Trump, people want to believe and that’s what Trump hopes they do to get what he wants (basically some marginal gains through intimidation but largely what one could achieve through more traditional civil approaches when negotiating from a power position).
Exactly. I've made the case before that while it may be a temporarily winning approach in business (aside from becoming persona non grata with most banks' risk departments), it's a losing strategy in international geopolitics.
Because counterparty countries will still exist, you'll need to make future deals, and they'll remember the last time you fucked them over.
> it would be a pity if nobody came to the rescue when China eventually puts its Taiwan plans in motion!
Wouldn't that just mean that Taiwan has to choose between two villains, and China can take the advantage of this by changing its narrative and taking the position as a hero, protecting Taiwan from the US.
Taiwan really, really does not want to be part of China.
Or rather, they see themselves as the legitimate government of China, which is undergoing a temporary Communist junta. The separation was extremely violent. I mean, you saw the Three Body Problem.
The US fosters this, to retain a toehold there. Taiwan doesn't exactly love us for it, but they know which side their bread is buttered on.
> they see themselves as the legitimate government of China
No, they don't. But formally renouncing that position[1] makes them officially secessionist in the eyes of Chinese conservatives, adding pressure to invade. The One China fiction matters, though how much it matters is definitely up for debate. But it's a local minima, and rolling the dice comes with significant risk.
[1] At the state level. AFAIU, it's been renounced by several of the major parties in Taiwan, and when in power they've made movements at low levels of government that arguably contravene the policy. But it still remains the official position and its still enshrined in the Taiwanese constitution. And, yes, the US adds pressure to maintain the status quo as it would (might?[2]) be on the hook for the defense of Taiwan. But the majority of the population isn't in favor of formally renouncing it, either; the potential negative consequences are existential, and the material benefit is slim to none.
[2] During Trump's first term it was claimed he privately admitted that if China invaded Taiwan he wouldn't intervene.
This isn't blackmail. A security guarantee has value. Exactly what value is hard to say since the US is the only credible seller of such guarantees in this world order
Like with Ukraine? Like with Iran? The US has proven its word is literally worthless and beholden to the whims of a dictator.
At this point, Taiwan would be foolish to not start working on a secret nuclear bomb program. North Korea has proven its the only way to actually protect yourself.
No need to give them. TW can absolutely make them on their own, in fact they had at least one active project to do that and were forced to stop by the US.
I wouldn’t be even slightly surprised to learn they have a few MIRVs stashed away, pointed at Beijing, just in case.
