This was being downvoted, but there is actually research showing a link between code age and security bugs: https://security.googleblog.com/2024/09/eliminating-memory-s... "Code matures and gets safer with time, exponentially, making the returns on investments like rewrites diminish over time as code gets older."
Not an argument for staying on an unsupported OS, but an argument for staying on a stable release as long as possible if you prefer stability over features
I think most software developer gets to understand this once they're working with production environments sooner rather than later. Most of the times stuff breaks is when someone changed something and failed to consider something else, not a lot of times things break by themselves. Sometimes, things break by themselves because someone in the past forgot to account for something that will happen far in the future though.
Not an argument for staying on an unsupported OS, but an argument for staying on a stable release as long as possible if you prefer stability over features