If AI revenue by 2030 needs to be more than the combined 2024 revenue of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia just to recoup the costs of depreciation on the chips then it's a bubble.
Every new technology creating opportunities and a overload of attention creates a bubble- however AI or Gen Intelligence through Language Models is giving us a tremendous amount of opportinities - A bubble so huge that it also contains many bubbles as well such as vibe coding and agents -
Yes it is. Everyone knows it. We're just waiting for it to pop, that's all. Wait for China to refactor their DeepSeek v3 to run on Huawei chips. Then you'll see the US stock marker crash.
Aren't bigger GPUs increasingly being seen on phones? So I'd expect more local AI. And is this true?
"Privacy is the real bottleneck for autonomous AI agents. Sapphire + ROFL looks like a solid answer: on-chain confidentiality for state and logic, off-chain trusted execution for computation."
Only if you think the market is not significantly shifting. Saying this now is like saying how much dirt will be needed to fill in a sinkhole while it's still caving inwards.
The concept of a bubble doesn't exist anymore. In the past, investors were way more tuned to value investing. Now days, investors dgaf about value as much as hype. As long as they can generate hype, the money will flow. And everyone is bought into the hype.
And really, overall its not really a bad thing, because money flowing = economic activity. The only downside is the focus of technological progress gets lost in the sauce, with a lot of companies thinking short term rather than actual persistent value.
I get your point. I'm not talking about AI in the future of the economy after the bubble burst settles. Or about the technology in the future. I'm talking about the cold hard economic calculus / numbers staring us near term in the face.
Chips are unlike cars and there is very little wear and tear. If depreciation of Chips and subsequent losses is your criteria of how this bubble will burst, you may be in for a rude awakening. With Moor's law already finished, the Chips can be used for at least a decade or more even with lower efficiency and more power usage.
>>We could not verify the name of the person who describes themselves as 'GenAI principal architect at Alphabet' and therefore we cannot 100% trust their claims.
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