I will worry when I see Startups competing on products with companies 10x, 100x, or 1000x times their size. Like a small team producing a Photoshop replacement. So far I haven't seen anything like that. Big companies don't seem to be launching new products faster either, or fixing some of their products that have been broken for a long time (MS teams...)
AI obviously makes some easy things much faster, maybe helps with boilerplate, we still have to see this translate into real productivity.
I think the real turning point is when there isn’t the need for something like photoshop. Creatives that I speak to yearn for the day when they can stop paying the adobe tax.
There will always be an adobe tax so to speak. Creatives want high quality and reliable tools to be able to produce high quality things.
I could imagine a world where a small team + AI creates an open source tool that is better than current day Photoshop. However if that small team has that power, so does adobe, and what we perceive as "good" or "high quality" will shift.
AI obviously makes some easy things much faster, maybe helps with boilerplate, we still have to see this translate into real productivity.