Saying that as someone who keeps my open source projects primarily on codeberg: Getting access to Codeberg CI is a bureaucracy, it has outages due to DDOS attacks every other week and there are a good number of open source developers who are making non-negligible money via GH sponsors.
Sure, for my private projects I already run my own Gitea and Woodpecker CI (and my own docker registry, and my own Taiga server for project management, and my own baserow server to replace airtable, etc...) but the moment you say "just get a VPS to run this service that is available for free at $BIGCORP", you lost 90% of the potential users.
Is it really free, though? You get free service - MS gets everyone's code for free. Only a fool would believe that they don't use private repos for training.
And even if it was free, do you really believe it is sustainable to just offer unlimited service for free to anyone? They've created an environment where you're punished for using anything but github. This is not good.
You don't need to convince me, you need to convince the millions of people who prefer the convenience of "Free as in Beer SaaS" over the resilience and self-sufficiency that we get by hosting our own systems.