I think we are still in the period where many new jobs are being created due to AI, and AI models are chiefly a labor enhancer, not a labor replacer. It is inevitable though, if current trends continue (the METR eval and GDPval) that AI models will be labor replacements in many fields, starting with jobs that are oriented around close-ended tasks (customer service reps, HR, designers, accountants), before expanding to jobs with longer and longer task horizons.

The only way this won't happen is if at some point AI models just stop getting smarter and more autonomously capable despite every AI lab's research and engineering effort.