The question “what if it happens” is important but useless without “how likely is that to happen” and “if it will happen how much time we need to cover for it”
Agreed. This is well studied in software engineering though, I think I've read papers from the 70s/80s addressing this about risk mitigation: what is the impact of the risk if it materializes vs how likely it is to materialize?
When people argue about the rigor of software engineering (i.e. "is it really engineering?") they often forget an important part: we are doomed to repeat mistakes or reinvent the wheel because nobody ever reads the existing research, nobody learns from the past, we're always blogging about the trendy latest thing withour asking ourselves "maybe someone in the 70s already explored this and drew valuable lessons?".
> we are doomed to repeat mistakes or reinvent the wheel because nobody ever reads the existing research, nobody learns from the past
We do. There’s dozens of us!
Here’s the thing though, the number of programmers in the world has been doubling every 5 years or so for the past few decades. If you have been doing this for 5 years, you have more experience than half the industry. It’s a young field and information only propagates so fast. You too have the power to help it spread.
- If we do it <this way>, will <this requirement> be impossible to implement (without a huge rewrite cost) later? If so then, if <this requirement> is a realistic possibility, consider <this way> is probably a poor choice
- If we do it <this way>, will <this requirement> be harder to implement, but not terribly so? If so, then weigh the cost/probability of doing it and it not being needed vs not doing it and it being needed
- If we do it <this way>, will <this requirement> not be any more cost to add then if we did it now? If so, then don't do it now. Because you're risking unneeded time for no benefit
Admittedly, all three of those are the same "equation", just the three ranges of where the numbers stand. But it's nice to specifically ask the first and third questions... because they can cut short the analysis.
