You're not wrong, but you're in the wrong place to talk to people about low-probability events and how they multiply. Most Hacker News can't into elementary-school-level probability equations and will instead take the ostrich approach; there was some behavioral scientist dude from Cambridge Analytica who wrote about this and the TL;DR is that most "adults" have infantile minds that prefer various safety blanket mechanisms that society is more than ready to offer them just to do anything to have an excuse to not face the truth of what basic math reveals to more likely than not be true.