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I don't think there is one. Prediction Markets are probably the closest and even those have problems. But at least incentives in a prediction market aim for the truth rather than an entertaining experience.


No, incentives aim for whatever gives a return - not an objective neutral verdict-of-the-crowd. It requires a regulator to be active.

Read about the whale trades and wash trades on Polymarket: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41999743


Yes the incentive alignment is what I was referring to when I mentioned that prediction markets have their own issues.

I'm not convinced wash trading is a huge problem as it's mostly about generating fake volume. The particular linked example is bad too because Trump did end up winning the election.


I said Polymarket doesn't give an objective neutral verdict-of-the-crowd at some moments, since their markets are still fairly small and can be moved short-term by whale trades.

An example is how volatile their markets are on Fed rate decisions; sometimes you see serious short-term disagreement or contrarianism between individual markets:

https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025

https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october

https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december




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