No. Nobody serious that I know of thinks Q-day has occurred or will occur in 2025. The more typical question is whether we're 10, 50, or 100 years away from it.
I’m of the opinion that it’s unlikely to happen within 50 years.
But I still think it’s a good idea to start switching over to post-quantum encryption, because the lead time is so high. It could easily take a full 10 years to fully implement the transition and we don’t want to be scrambling to start after Q-day.
Moving from SHA-1 to SHA-2 took ~20 years - and that's the "happy path", because SHA-2 is a drop-in replacement.
The post-quantum transition is more complex: keys and signatures are larger; KEM is a cryptographic primitive with a different interface; stateful signature algorithms require special treatment for state handling. It can easily take more than 20 years.
