OpenAI will go to zero unless it agrees to be acquired because they're messing with public company stock valuations using funky purchase orders leaving those public companies no choice but to cancel their credit (at least unless they get a "government backstop" that they say they don't want or need). Those who compete with OpenAI will also "take a hit" if/when that happens, so they would be wise to be looking to make a deal to acquire OpenAI. Dude was from Y Combinator and liked to bank on hope, focusing on capturing market share and worrying about profits later, which is fine in software startups playing with Monopoly money, but when it impacts vendors that are publicly traded companies (to the point that one is now valued at $5T), post-1929 rules come into play. Anthropic has a similar issue, but there, the issue is that their C-suite is making outrageous public statements that are suspected of intending to manipulate the stock values of both private and public competitors and of the publicly held vendors to all of these players. I hope they both go away quietly and someone declares victory rather than the stock market crashing!
As far as xAI, I doubt it will go to zero or run afoul of any of those market manipulation issues because it owns Twitter/X and I think it powers the realtime Tesla cloud, but betting on it is fraught with peril because of the high likelihood that it will wind up under the control of some less capable conglomerate (ergo, GM acquisition of Hughes Aircraft and resale to Raytheon, Boeing and News/DirecTV).
Google, Meta, a handful of B actors and China are where we have to place our bets, but only if we ourselves need (or want to invest on the theory that others need) trillion parameter models (and want to risk having the valuations lowered if/when adverse actions are taken against the above competitors).
*-"eventually" leaving those public companies no choice but to...
Clarifying, because there's no way a company (public or private) is going to reduce the credit line of a major customer until it's obvious that the orders "aren't real" But if Wall Street realizes it before they do, they can lose control of their business too. This is not quite Enron or WorldCom/MFS, but it's a very similar storm on the horizon. (BTW, ever wonder why Sprint never could remain airborne and eventually was merged with TeenMobile? It's because they overspent on CapX trying to keep up with the fraud at Worldcom and could never dig out to actually use all that spectrum. Likewise, we are still dealing with the fallout of the Enron collapse on the US domestic energy grid a quarter century later.)
As far as xAI, I doubt it will go to zero or run afoul of any of those market manipulation issues because it owns Twitter/X and I think it powers the realtime Tesla cloud, but betting on it is fraught with peril because of the high likelihood that it will wind up under the control of some less capable conglomerate (ergo, GM acquisition of Hughes Aircraft and resale to Raytheon, Boeing and News/DirecTV).
Google, Meta, a handful of B actors and China are where we have to place our bets, but only if we ourselves need (or want to invest on the theory that others need) trillion parameter models (and want to risk having the valuations lowered if/when adverse actions are taken against the above competitors).