I'd expect at least API pricing for all major players to be margin-positive. Positive ROI if you include model training cost? Maybe not, but in a hypothetical scenario where all capital for new model training goes away, the latest frontier model weights still continue to exist.

Subscription prices for claude code et. al? No idea.

No, that's a rumor lots of people have been taking at face value. If you do the math, inferrence is very lucrative. Here someone deployed a big model, the costs are $0.20/1M token https://lmsys.org/blog/2025-05-05-large-scale-ep/