How long are Microsoft, and those who write about it, going to continue with the delusion that Windows Phone's competition is Apple and iOS, instead of Google and Android?
I had spoken to Horace Dediu of Asymco in December for a story on what options Microsoft and Nokia had before them, and here are some of the relevant parts he told me (the article itself doesn't seem to have been put online at Forbes India, who I used to write for but no longer do):
>> Coming to the present, the biggest problem that Microsoft and Nokia will face is that of timing. Specifically, at what stage are we when it comes to global penetration of smartphones?
>> Today now that the market is over 1 billion users and going to very rapidly saturate, the challenge for Microsoft is their assumption of wanting to keep on trying hoping to succeed one day. It's hard to believe that after so many tries and so much saturation, they can succeed. Worse, their strategies are symmetric, meaning they compete against an Apple or an Android by claiming their Lumia devices are better.
>> If Microsoft and Nokia can pivot and become a low-end competitor then there may be an opportunity still available in emerging markets. But instead they’re pouring tremendous resources into the US and Europe saying Lumia is better. That will fail. The door for Windows Phone is closing not because of Apple and iOS but because of Google and Android. Nokia, the bulk of whose phome portfolio was in the mid-market, was defeated by Android. I could argue, with difficulty, that they can still get into the late stage market but I haven’t seen a message from them indicating that. They simply aren't humble enough to see that market as their core, but still see their platform as superior to all others.
> How long are Microsoft, and those who write about it, going to continue with the delusion that Windows Phone's competition is Apple and iOS, instead of Google and Android?
They compete with both. Iphone does not sell because it sucks outside of US. It is locked down severely restricted platform. It does not even have USB Mass Storage!
$50 Android smartphones are coming this year. They've actually existed for quite some time, but this year they will be more "mainstream", and you'll see a lot more models (in poor countries). The combination of the Cortex A7 CPU plus KitKat which is optimized for low-end will ensure they work pretty well, too, relative to other phones in that range with much fewer features and less functionality.
So I doubt Microsoft will have any chance at that market either. Android pours 1.5 million new units into the market every day, or about 500 million per year, and that's before these mainstream "good enough" $50 smartphones arrive, which I think will help Android double its unit grow rate within 12-18 months. Everything else will get drowned out.
Here in the US, I walked into an ATT store a few months ago. My options for a '$99' phone included a couple of Nokia 900 series Luminas, a Samsung Galaxy S3, an LG Optimus G Pro, and the iPhone 5c.
If you've had an iPhone for 3 generations like me, there's no way you would switch to another vendor, simply because of all of the apps that you've paid for. If there were some way to get the Android version of an app if you bought the iPhone version, that might make it a lot easier to switch, but without that, I can't be bothered with spending money trying to recreate the same environment I currently have.
I'm not convinced. While most people might have spent enough money on their iOS apps to feel this way, I doubt that buying the same apps (if their free alternatives don't exist) on Android would rack up more than a few tens of dollars.
There are things that iPhone and Apple products still do better than their Android counterparts. For example, you still can't do screen mirroring from your android device to a Chromecast. Meanwhile, AppleTV works like a charm.
But, when it comes to SmartPhones independently, I'm of the opinion that marketing is the only thing keeping iPhone alive. The list of things you get for free with Android that you can't get with the iPhone even if you paid for them are growing longer and longer... Off the top of my head, here are things I've heard from friends who recently switched:
Woa, how did I ever go without Widgets!
Swyping is supported by default, _and_ I can change the default keyboard?!
I can charge my phone with any USB cable, _and_ upgrade my battery?!
You don't _have_ to use iTunes for everything?!
...
People use iTunes? Genuine question - what for? I live in an all Apple world, work, home, friends (mostly) and family (mostly). I'm not sure any of them use iTunes. With the exception of having to dump video into it to find it on the AppleTV, I never use it. It is awful.
Music is via Spotify, or, rarely, via the music app which has content in the cloud. Spotify stores my music locally. The App Store doesn't have iTunes in its name on iOS devices (as far as I can see). If I wanted music on my device via the music app, I'd buy it from the store. However if I owned a CD (not sure how this would happen, binned them all ages ago) I would have to stick it in a Mac (not mine, it hasn't got a drive), rip it, put them on a memory stick, get it to my Mac, dump them in iTunes (argh), then wait for cloud sync.
It helps to not conflate iTunes (an application) with the iTunes Store (a service). The latter can be accessed either from the former or from a handful of roughly equivalent apps on the device itself (an App Store app, an iTunes Store app for media, a Podcasts app...) There are very few things one cannot do without the former — which is good, because odds are that, when someone is talking about how bad iTunes is, they're criticizing the desktop application specifically.
Look. I don't hate Windows Phone, my girlfriend has the HTC 8X and adores it. With the latest set of big apps ported (like Instagram and Snapchat), it's quite nice. The interface is good, and fast on modest hardware. The browser is pretty meh. PIM functionality is good, as you'd expect from Windows Mobiles pedigree.
But comparing an entire ecosystem of phones (with one of the biggest sellers being the $100 Nokia 520) with iPhones limited range, is silly. Try again when Apple release a true current gen budget smartphone perhaps. I've never understood why we as consumers care about this stuff -- they're businesses for christs sake, and they make billions of dollars of us. Why do we care if one big business does better than their competitors? Why do we defend them? :/
Because as developers, you don't develop for a specific piece of mobile hardware, you develop for an OS.
If Windows Phone is gaining ground in markets you care about, you'd best care about it, regardless of the specific hardware being talked about. We're comparing ecosystems here, not hardware. We can compare "Windows Phone Phones vs iOS phones" if that makes you feel more comfortable.
Hey, yeah I agree with you that as developers it matters. Sorry, my post was influenced by another discussion recently about this topic; I was looking at it from a consumer perspective.
Now there are some arguments to be made as to why consumers would care as well, but in my experience those arguments might hold true for people like us on HN but not for your average commenter on The Verge (for example).
Well, it matters for consumers too - ecosystem familiarity and lock-in is a big deal. If I buy a bunch of apps in one ecosystem, I have a sunk cost that's going to keep me in that ecosystem. Another ecosystem gaining dominance might mean any number of things as to how I use the device.
Consider, for example, if Chile becomes dominated by the Windows Phone. All your good useful local apps - your local versions of Yelps, Zagats, OpenTables, etc - are going to go Windows Phone first. The services that matter most in the community you're in are going to go where the marketshare is - and as an iPhone user, you might be left waiting to catch up.
Consumers care if one business does better than the other because of two reasons, pride and long-term self-interest.
1) Everyone prefers to be on the winning or "proven-right" side. It's hard to be happy with your otherwise decent Blackberry if your peers increasingly don't use it, know anything about it, or disparage it.
2) There is also a long-term self-interested component that seeks more than simply trying to fit in. It goes like this - the more cool your chosen device/platform/game is the more users it attracts, the more users it attracts the more money is flowing through the system, and ultimately more money means more human resources are spent on patching/re-releasing your favorite product so that it can be improved and stay reliable in the long-term. And if it's a proprietary messaging system or a multiplayer game, having more users in the system is in itself also a boon to the end-user experience.
>With the latest set of big apps ported (like Instagram and Snapchat), it's quite nice.
It's not only about the big apps. The 'download app from' in advertisement footers are only referring to the App Store and Google Play. By choosing an iPhone or an Android consumers know for sure that they are able to download and use any app, not just the big ones.
>> Italy and Finland aside, Windows Phone is primarily growing is poorer nations where the iPhone is prohibitively expensive
The markets that Windows outsell iPhone are the markets where iPhone has less than 10% market share and where people need cheaper phones.
These are not the markets that are attractive to developers (Revenue/user is much lower than developed countries) and hence Windows will not see developer mindshare in near future.
Notice other than Nokia Home base (Finland), Windows does not outsell Android anywhere else.
I wouldn't be so sure about that. Windows computers have always been cheaper (in general) than Macs and software developers just flocked to the Windows platform.
WinPhone mindshare already has grown drastically. There are certainly app gaps, but it closing fast. And before I'd ask companies if they had a win phone app coming they'd say, "what?". Now it is almost always part of the roadmap.
I have to agree. I was looking into developing a winphone app, figuring there'd be plenty of options, but when you search in the store there's already a decent match for the most part on similar android/iphone apps. I was actually kinda bummed, figuring I'd have easy pickins.
This is just anecdotal evidence, but increasingly some of my friends and relatives are including Galaxy and Lumia into their conversations about phone upgrade. So maybe it's getting into the general mind-share.
Trivia really. Apple and WP both sell smartphones but they don't really compete against each other. Sure Nokia trots out a high end phone every 6 months or what have you but the sales on those models aren't moving the dial on market share. The people who are in Apple's market ($400+ smartphones) either buy an iPhone or a high end Android phone. The people buying 95% of these WP's (510 is $150 unlocked, 520 is $200) are choosing between WP and low end Android phones.
The author tries to anticipate this with:
"As such, it is possible for cynics to argue Windows Phone is gaining in markets where the iPhone doesn’t compete and making little headway where it does. Except this isn’t true either.
Windows Phone Is Fast Becoming A Hit In Europe"
But this is also bollocks. There are people everywhere that buy $200 phones, it might be only 20% in the US and 30% in Europe (where many countries don't use subsidies) instead of the 80%+ you might see in Mexico or Thailand but that doesn't mean these people are choosing WP's over iPhones.
Seems dodgy. Sure you could say that most people who buy Kia Optimas are choosing them over a Mercedes on price but it honestly doesn't occur to most of those people that a Benz is an option for them because it isn't. And anyone saying Mercedes is losing market share to Kia would be laughed out of the room.
I'm working on a project for a large company that recently made Windows Phone 8 its corporate standard.
I have to say that I've been impressed with the phone since I started using one for development. The display, camera and interfaces feel smooth and fun to use.
It's easy to bash Microsoft and dismiss its products altogether, but it's important to give them a shot, if only to avoid the mistake of limiting ourselves to the Apple / Google technology that is most prevalent.
Why? We've pretty much limited ourselves to Apple and Microsoft on the desktop for almost 2 decades. In fact, it has been pretty much limited to Microsoft. They still have about 90% desktop market share, and almost 100% of the corporate desktop.
Microsoft illegally killed off most desktop competition when they forced hardware vendors to pay for DOS on every PC they shipped, regardless of which OS they shipped.
Personally, I think we're better off with Google taking the place of Microsoft in the mobile space.
If you were a professional filmmaker, would you only watch movies made by Steven Spielberg and Michael Bay? If you were a chef, would you refuse to eat anything but lobster and filet mignon?
Apple and Google are the lobsters and the Steven Spielbergs of the technology world, so to speak: they're highly respected, rich and popular. In a way, there's nothing wrong with that: I use a Macbook, Gmail, etc., because I think they're very well made.
My argument isn't that the software industry should jump into bed with Microsoft; I'm saying that trying technologies like the Windows Phone is vital to our professional development as software engineers.
If you consider yourself a creator in any given field, you can't keep up without at least dabbling with different and sometimes lesser appreciated products. New ideas often emerge when we deviate from standard tools and practices.
Yes, I agree and I completely understand. It would have been great if BeOS and OS/2 survived, for example. Unfortunately, Microsoft killed off all competition. Now we're stuck in a world where 90% of the world runs Microsoft's operating system, and there's very little innovation. I'm all for looking at Microsoft's ideas. I just feel safer with Google on 80% of the world's phones. It'll add balance have another major player.
"Personally, I think we're better off with Google taking the place of Microsoft in the mobile space". Wow it just felt like 2008 for a second. Google's image is so different now. Sad really.
Most of the reason behind this grab-bag list of places Windows Phone has some market share is that Nokia previously dominated sales in most of these places. Nokia used to be "tier zero" of the handset business, in a class by itself, and with a distribution network that reached where nobody else went.
It is a too-easy prediction that these numbers won't hold up as both upper-tier Android OEMs and deep-discount Chinese OEMs invade every remaining corner of the global handset market.
This is the real reason behind these numbers, Nokia's brand and distribution network.
Interestingly, Microsoft hasn't bought the Nokia brand for smart phones so once the sale goes through all new phones will no longer be branded Nokia. And after as short period of time Nokia will be able to licence the name to some unpronouncable-to-westerners company from China and Nokia Androids will be on the market to compete with Microsoft Lumias.
I'd love to know if Microsoft bought the distribution network. I don't know if it's technically part of Nokia or just a network of partner companies.
Microsoft owns all of Nokia's handset assets now, and has the brand license for a remarkably short time, as you point out. Nokia will continue to use their brand for their infrastructure business as well as maps and other online services.
Microsoft does own Nokia's distribution network, and even the factories that make Series 30 handsets, and all the other odd stuff. Another headache for the next Microsoft CEO.
My bet is that Nokia will get back in to the handset business, and possibly other consumer electronics, once their non-competition agreement expires. Nokia owns some of Jolla, and most of Jolla's employees are formerly Nokia people. I think Jolla already uses Nokia's maps and media ecosystems.
Semi-related: As an Apple fan for the past few years, I have to say, I'm really starting to like where Microsoft is heading. At least in terms of UI and UX.
Didn't Apple take a more gentrified approach to their sales?
I was under the impression that Apple didn't bother to market to any of the markets listed in that article because they aren't THE LARGEST AND RICHEST MARKETS IN THE WORLD.
You're reading the Wikipedia article wrong. The iPhone was released in Finland in 2008 when the 3G model came out, and that's stated in the article as well.
The primary reason for not releasing the original iPhone in European markets was the lack of 3G. A 2G-only smartphone would have been a hard sell in European markets back in 2007-08 when 3G was already widely deployed and used.
Not true; from the article: On May 27, 2008, TeliaSonera released a press release stating that it would start selling the iPhone in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia during 2008.
Such a fucking paid nonsense. I an in India right now. It is Samsung and iPhone country. It was Nokia Symbian country before Samsung and Android era, and you would never see a Lumina phone outside a shop window. Low level Nokia Asha phones are selling well, but they are S40.
I am also in India and I have to say that while Lumias are not everywhere, they definitely have a decent market share. and iPhone country? I don't think so.
I live in Vietnam. Windows phone is certainly popular here, but I believe (relying on my own biased observations) that iPhone is vastly more popular. While iPhones are sold by official vendors, it's far more popular to buy "hand carry" phones that are imported by individuals. Of the ~10 people I know with iPhones, all are hand carried. They are cheaper than the official vendors (and not recognized in the IDC report).
Windows Phone in Vietnam are more of a cheaper phone (comparable to Android devices) rather than compete directly with the expensive iPhones. For those customers who can afford the iPhone, they will buy the iPhone instead of a high end Nokia Windows Phone.
It's not 'as crowded', but it's actually grown quite a lot recently with decent app alternatives, so there's not as much available as there used to be, but it's still better in terms of app vs phone quantity.
Re: Poland, it seems to me Windows Phone's relative success is thanks to the Nokia brand, and also to iPhone being considered overpriced upmarket gadget and/or hipster symbol.
Nokia has long enjoyed very good opinion and popularity in Poland -- as the go-to vendor, thanks to decently-priced, user-friendly and rugged phones. The second-hand market is huge, spare parts and accessories abound and experienced repair shops common.
Having said that, a few of my friends have gotten Windows Phone and all of them were disappointed, most of them returned them back in exchange for anything Android. Common complain was OS being disappointing for daily use, and app selection was lacking.
tl;dr
In Poland Windows Phone may outsell iPhones, but it still remains niche -- and you should also subtract frequent returns to get actual user base.
Australia is interesting, where Android actually fell 5.5%, and both iPhone and Windows gained. Even BB gained in Australia. Every other country has Android gaining. With so much competition in Android space, there are some great offers available.
What numbers are you referring to? Curious, I live in AU too and all I am observing is the rise of android against a stagnant MS and dwindling iPhone and BB market shares..
We have higher-level tools and languages on WP platform. And we can use Xamarin for cross-platform cod reuse. Thankfully there is no strong need for HTML5.
Here in Chile, I'm not sure where those phones are. You see iPhone and Android everywhere.
My best guess would be people upgrading from a feature phone to a smartphone for the first time. They might buy a really low end Windows phone because of Nokia (they dominated the market for ages) but I have never seen a high end one here in the wild.
Finland can likely be explained exclusively by Nokia. Interesting to see what happens now they are to all intents and purposes a part of MS.
Shame really, back in the pre-smartphone days I always had a Nokia as they made the best hardware by far. Nokia phones with CyanogenMod would have been a perfect combination.
"accounts for 93.2 percent of all Windows Phone handset sales highlighting little traction or interest from companies where Microsoft does not have control" - more like companies incapable of building something better then current Nokia products.
I had spoken to Horace Dediu of Asymco in December for a story on what options Microsoft and Nokia had before them, and here are some of the relevant parts he told me (the article itself doesn't seem to have been put online at Forbes India, who I used to write for but no longer do):
>> Coming to the present, the biggest problem that Microsoft and Nokia will face is that of timing. Specifically, at what stage are we when it comes to global penetration of smartphones?
>> Today now that the market is over 1 billion users and going to very rapidly saturate, the challenge for Microsoft is their assumption of wanting to keep on trying hoping to succeed one day. It's hard to believe that after so many tries and so much saturation, they can succeed. Worse, their strategies are symmetric, meaning they compete against an Apple or an Android by claiming their Lumia devices are better.
>> If Microsoft and Nokia can pivot and become a low-end competitor then there may be an opportunity still available in emerging markets. But instead they’re pouring tremendous resources into the US and Europe saying Lumia is better. That will fail. The door for Windows Phone is closing not because of Apple and iOS but because of Google and Android. Nokia, the bulk of whose phome portfolio was in the mid-market, was defeated by Android. I could argue, with difficulty, that they can still get into the late stage market but I haven’t seen a message from them indicating that. They simply aren't humble enough to see that market as their core, but still see their platform as superior to all others.