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People have a problem with spent fuels sitting in pools for decades, as happens in Sellafield.

"Originally constructed in the 1940s, 50s and 60s these facilities - two ponds and two concrete silos - no longer meet the safety requirements that are required today and present some of the most difficult decommissioning challenges - not just in the UK - but in the world."

The industry does not have a good reputation, and it only has itself to blame for that.

https://www.onr.org.uk/our-work/what-we-regulate/sellafield-...


The UK is aiming for around 27GW of battery storage by 2030.

But it's not a simple picture. The grid needs to be expanded to distribute power from renewables more efficiently, batteries aren't the only storage option, and the concept is still too centralised.

A combination of distributed rooftop solar with domestic batteries, maybe local storage in substations, strategic national storage, and a mix of sources would be a more effective strategy than trying to park huge batteries around the country in the hope they'll be big enough.

The UK still has a post-war mindset around energy which doesn't make sense in the 21st century.


> The UK is aiming for around 27GW of battery storage by 2030.

How many GWh? Citation please.


I’m not OP but: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-the-uk-plans-to-rea...

It’s either 27 or 27GW they are installing sorry.


27GW for an hour or for a week?

There’s a massive difference.


The link doesn’t mention - that was my point.

Surely it’s per hour though?


If you invest in battery and storage tech you'll get reliable storage long before the first "baseload nukes" start contributing to the grid.

Storage tech has been criminally underfunded and under-researched. There are many, many options. But because of poor investment decisions and lobbying from the usual suspects the tech is around twenty years behind where it could be.


That’s simply not true, or at least not today.

First of, the UK are investing in battery storage, there’s already a rollout of grid-level battery systems across the country*.

None of them hold capacity for longer than 2 hours before they need to start discharging. In fact, the record breaking duration is 6 hours. This is great as a short buffer, but it’s not “storage”.

To put this in perspective, last year the UK went 2 weeks without any significant wind, so a 2 hour buffer is nothing. This is why Hydrogen is still being kept as an option for long term storage.

https://stateraenergy.co.uk/projects/thurrock-storage

https://rhomotion.com/news/longest-duration-battery-energy-s...


The ratio between GW and GWh is always an optimization of the fixed costs vs potential profit.

A 4 hour battery can run at 50% for 8 hours or 25% for 16 hours.

The determining factor is what the market needs.


I doubt Woz would want the job. He's an engineer, not a corporate strategist, and he seems happy that way.

The ideal CEO would be a business strategist, innovator and thought-leader, and world-class marketer, but with enough of an engineering background to chase hard problems.

There aren't many of those around.

Jobs did okay at all four, mostly. Cook gets the first, mostly, and has adequate delegation skills for engineering and marketing. This works superbly when the engineering is world-leading (the M chips) and badly when the engineering is mediocre (the software.) The marketing has drifted towards attempts at luxury-consumer branding, which is an off-the-shelf pitch. It hasn't been a failure. But it has lost some of its distinctiveness, and it's a little incoherent at times.

Cook's still been hugely more successful than Sculley or Amelio. Sculley was a bland corporatist, and Amelio was very, very smart, but too much of an engineer to be good at the rest. He did really well elsewhere, but Apple just wasn't a good fit.

The job is a poisoned chalice. It's going to be extremely difficult for the new CEO to assert their authority over the established fiefdoms, keep the plates spinning, deal with a weird political and economic environment, and still create Apple-styled innovation.


The problem of running a $4 Trillion consumer hardware company, with incredibly optimized supply chain operations, is that it heavily constrains the directions a new CEO would take the company, and by extension, the set of plausible people who could take the helm. I think even if the next CEO has a new or different product vision, they'd need deep knowledge on the hardware side of the house just to steer in any different direction.

This is just naive.

The EU is still a major trading partner, and regulatory divergence would kill trade, not increase it.

Elsewhere, the only way fewer regulations would increase GDP would be if the UK was selling goods and services that benefited from lower standards.

It already does that, because tax evasion and money laundering are a significant part of GDP.

But there are very, very few areas in normal international trade where buyers want to see looser regs and lower standards.

As an argument, it's just incoherent.


The immigration betrayal was obvious to anyone familiar with UK history.

It's how the ruling class works. They import cheap labour from the (former) colonies to drive down wages. Then they pay their puppet politicians to hyperventilate about how terrible immigration is, how filthy these foreigners are, and how it Must Be Stopped.

It's been happening for centuries - the same scam, over and over.


Are you joking?

Estimates are that between 1870 and 1913 net emigration of British citizens averaged about 131,000 per year, i.e. more people left the UK than arrived:

>https://docs.iza.org/dp81.pdf

In the 1881 census of England and Wales, "natives of foreign states" were 174,372 people, just 0.671% of the population.

In the 19th century, England was a country of emigrants, with net migration at roughly -100k/year. From 2014–24, you're looking at typically +200k to +900k per year. This is totally unprecedented to put it mildly. And now, like it or not, I'm sure that things are going to get ugly.


Quick bias check: Do migrants or employers drive down wages?

It looks like the times are changing thanks to AI, so we'll see what happens when the petite-bourgeoisie stop being quite so bougie.

No.

So far as I know, every single UBI trial has had consistently positive outcomes. People get jobs, get training, get a roof over their heads.

Giving people money does in fact give people more choices, and helps make the poor less poor.


Which UBI trials do you know about? There's a list here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income_pilots

But only six of the listed pilots mention the results.

1970s NIT pilots: no noticeable improvements.

Mincome: significant reduction in hospitalization. Slight decrease in work?

Tribal profit sharing: better homelife for children, parents on the booze less.

Madhya Pradesh: great success.

Netherlands: increased employment slightly, not health.

Finland: improved health slightly, not employment (employment was the goal).

So, I don't know. I suppose it helps, but mostly in Madhya Pradesh.


Everyone over 65 gets a state pension in NZ. And they hardly contribute to the tax take. I’d say that’s a partial UBI.

This is incorrect. The biggest accidents - Potters Bar, Hatfield, Southall - happened in the years immediately after privatisation, before passenger numbers had grown much.

The problem was more that - in typical privatised fashion - the industry was treated as a cash grab, and property speculation and other side quests got more management attention than running a safe railway.

That first incarnation was so bad it was quickly nuked, and replaced with the hybrid arrangement we have today, which has a much better safety record, but is still comically expensive and inefficient.

And franchises very clearly have improved, so that's incorrect too. Delays and cancellations are down across the network, and that's before the system is reintegrated.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2025/oct...

The biggest disaster of privatisation was the loss of more than a century of engineering and management culture and knowledge. The UK invented tilting train technology, and it was given away to foreign corporations instead of being licensed and exploited in the UK.

This is the pattern behind all UK privatisation. Foreign countries and shareholders benefited hugely, while prices of essential services exploded, and service quality degraded.


> The biggest disaster of privatisation was the loss of more than a century of engineering and management culture and knowledge.

That's always the loss. In privitisation, in out-sourcing, and in downscaling engineering teams by firing senior engineers. And it's great for the those in charge of the budget cuts, because it is a loss that is very difficult to quantify financially, and will only show over a longer period of time. Typically, well after they cashed-out and left.


> And it's great for the those in charge of the budget cuts, because it is a loss that is very difficult to quantify financially, and will only show over a longer period of time. Typically, well after they cashed-out and left.

IMHO most executive pay should be locked up for decades by law, and they only get a middle-class wage stipend in the interim. And I mean really locked up, such that a significant fraction should only be payed out as long as 20 years later. And that pay gets forfeited if the organization has too many problems.

It'd help disincentive smash-and-grab management like you describe (because weakening the org would jeopardize the locked up pay, and would help a big with succession (because their pay would depend on the successor's performance, too).


Don't we have already solution for this? It is called pension. Extra executive compensation should be set up as pension, which starts paying at usual pension age. And it must be locked to only be shares of the company. And it should work by automatically selling to open market the shares locked up until the expected life expectancy expires.

I don't think you can make management take a long-term view when shareholders have a short-term one, tbh.

And thus the cycle continues- the EU stifles meritocracy, bemoans the resulting lack of innovation and entrepreneurship, and resorts to inventing new and novel ways to penalize US companies as a coping mechanism

The difficulty is quantifying the relationship between risk and organizational knowledge.

Otherwise bloated, inefficient companies look the same as those retaining institutional knowledge.


I remember reading an article in the journnal of the RSS about whether it was actually less safe or whether it was just statistical clustering.

I don't however remember the conclusion!

I've tracked down the article to https://academic.oup.com/jrssig/article-abstract/4/1/15/7029... but I don't have access.


Its available in full online and concludes:

> The conclusion from the analysis of the accident data is that there is no evidence for the hypothesis that railway safety, as measured by accidents, has become worse since privatisation.

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/j....


This article was written in 2007, just a few years after Network Rail was re-nationalised in 2002.

Since 2002, there has only been a single passenger fatality attributable to poor maintenance: the Grayrigg derailment in 2007.

This followed a cluster of high profile crashes during the Railtrack (privatisation) era in 1997-2002 that killed dozens, and were directly or partly attributable to poor maintenance.

I’d argue that the longer Network Rail’s good safety record continues, the more we can disregard that article.


> as measured by accidents

Suspiciously specific denial. What about other metrics?


Read the bottom of page 17 and page 18 of the article I linked to.

Given where it was published (a magazine backed by statisticians associations in three countries) it would have been very damaging to the author's (a professor at Imperial College) reputation to have been sloppy about conclusions.


I always wondered what personality of software engineers leads to massive grab bag predicates.

    def is_problem(ctx) -> Bool:
        ...1000 lines of various garbage...
Vs.

     def is_specific_condition(ctx) -> Bool:
         ...3 lines of specific predicate...
Now I see. The latter would be suspiciously specific. I wonder if it correlates with belief in the Omnicause.

More of the opposite

This be enough if there is metric that shows worse safety:

The conclusion from the analysis of the accident data is that there is no evidence for the hypothesis that railway safety has become worse since privatisation.


Like what? Accidents are the only source of danger in the system.

The study at hand seems to have considered only fatal accidents. Probably for good statistical reasons. But the most obvious next “what” to my mind would be accidents that did not result in fatalities.

Followed closely by safety-involved “incidents” that were reportable somewhere (internally or to a regulator), but that luckily didn’t result in an accident that time.

One imagines these must get really hard to measure reliably the further they get from concrete death records.


> But the most obvious next “what” to my mind would be accidents that did not result in fatalities.

This makes no sense as a criticism of "as measured by accidents". The fix for measuring by accidents is to measure by accidents?


I don’t mean it as a criticism! I think that their choice to study a dataset of accidents resulting in fatalities—was reasonable, and that it was admirable to reiterate that qualifier in the conclusion.

I’m also sensitive to the parent commenter’s point that the choice of indicator was kind of narrow. But it makes sense to me why academics might choose a narrow but highly reliable dataset, and try to be very transparent about that: safety is certainly much broader than just fatality-accidents, but fatality-accidents are awfully hard to fudge long-term records for.


> I’m also sensitive to the parent commenter’s point that the choice of indicator was kind of narrow.

But you're not. We can separate the parent comment into two claims:

(1) The indicator was accidents;

(2) The indicator is too narrow.

You've supported (2) by pointing out that the parent commenter's idea of what the choice of indicator was was completely incorrect. But everything they said was wrong! They were wrong about the indicator, and they were wrong that the indicator they called excessively narrow was excessively narrow. They weren't saying that the paper judged by a criterion that was too narrow, independently of what that criterion was. (1) and (2) are both claims you can mine out of the parent comment, but they're not claims that were made separately in the parent comment.

"Accidents" covers everything you might want to know about. It's crazy to say that looking at accident rates is "suspiciously specific". It's crazy because it's as nonspecific as you can get.


Accidents aren’t a cause of danger, they’re the result of it.

That is meaningless nonsense.

It says there’s no evidence for that hypothesis.

> The UK invented tilting train technology, and it was given away to foreign corporations instead of being licensed and exploited in the UK.

It wasn't given away. Fiat Ferroviaria purchased the patents for it.

Mind, the UK wasn't the first tilted train (that would probably be PERC in the US) or even the first actively tilted train (either SNCF in France or Deutsche Bahn in Germany).


> It wasn't given away. Fiat Ferroviaria purchased the patents for it.

Those patents were sold in 1982 for the princely sum of £1.

This was the pattern that Thatcher presided over, selling national systems for a nominal £1 fee.

I think that is essentially giving it away.


She also stole a bank.

> ”The UK invented tilting train technology, and it was given away to foreign corporations instead of being licensed and exploited in the UK.”

This all happened in the 1970s and early 1980s, long before privatisation.

British Rail itself decided that the APT tilting trains were too risky/radical, and shifted to a more conventional design, the HST.

And the Italians had been working on their own successful tilting technology for years before they bought the APT patents in 1982.


Yeah that sounds about right. I can't think of many situations where privatizing safety critical operations hasn't ended in disaster. Safety at that point ceases to be a priority and just another number on the sheet to crunch. If the lawsuit is cheaper than the savings from cutting corners, that's the move to make.

>The biggest disaster of privatisation was the loss of more than a century of engineering and management culture and knowledge.

Yeah, this is often the biggest loss of mass layoffs in the name of short term profits. Esepcially since the situations also tend to cut training programs. You're slashing a pipe for some quick water at the cost of draining the rest of your plumbing system. while firing the plumbers in the process.

I wish we could switch back to incentivizing long term portfolios and planning. It's reckless at this point.


From the start, in 1994, there was this arbitrarily imposed structure with Railtrack owning all the track, and all the private companies leasing. The original plan was that this Railtrack thing would be publicly funded, and that's where that structure came from. Slowly over three years, then, the railway went private. Railtrack wasn't private until 1996. Then the railway was "properly private," but not really, because of this track-monopoly structure imposed on it by legislation, Railtrack being in effect government-run and a "private" company somehow too. Five years later (2001) there was bankruptcy, administration and re-nationalization of Railtrack (into "Network Rail") anyway.

Lurking in the background the whole time was the RMT, the National Union of Rail [etc.] Workers, led by "communist/socialist" Bob Crow, a moderate in the union.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Crow

So if this is viewed as an experiment in private ownership, experimental conditions were extremely messy and any conclusions are invalidated by cultural complexities and compromises.


I'm in the UK and services seem worse to me. I also remember pre-privatization British Rail. It was unbelievably awful.

The basic fact about rail privatization is captured in this chart. All else is commentary:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_privatisation_of...


That chart doesn't normalize for population, service levels, social changes or any number of other extremely important variables.

Any facts taken from that chart need to be extremely caveated.


What do you think happened exactly at the time the railway was privatized? Suddenly the population shot up?

This is like looking at the light map of the border between North and South Korea and saying "ah, but they aren't controlling for longitude!"


My commentary is this: It looks like around 1982, the trend reversed, well before the privatization. My takeaway is that whatever the government had done under nationalization was successful at addressing the concerns that existed and contributed to a downward trend that began before nationalization.

There are lots of wiggles in any graph and you can always take a wiggle and say "ah the trend was reversed". Privatization showed a steady growth in passenger numbers for decades. Nationalization didn't.

The trend is not a "wiggle." It is the slope of a local region, around which the "wiggles" bounce.

Sure, I agree: privatization continued the trend that nationalization established.

My point is simply this: the graph on its own doesn't indicate anything causal, but your original comment implied that the graph is enough to prove that privatization caused the growth.


Sure. The graph on its own doesn't prove causality. The graph, plus a little basic common sense, does give strong evidence of causality. Specifically, there's no other plausible alternative for the sudden dramatic turnaround in the mid-80s and sustained growth thereafter.

The turnaround in the mid 1980s predates privatization, so unless everyone had time machines back then, this is evidence against causality.

Also: common sense is not evidence. It never has been, nor will it ever be. Justification? Sure. Could even be that common sense is correct. But, evidence? No.


The British rail privatization was so successful in increasing passenger numbers it also increased the number of passengers taking the train in France (despite French rail still being state-controlled).

Or maybe, just maybe, there's another underlying casual relationship that explains why train use increased a ton in the 90s and 00s in both countries (and other European countries too, by the way, AFAIK passengers count also increased in Germany in that period). Who knows.


Much of the French high speed rail network (LGV Atlantique, LGV Rhône-Alpes, LGV Nord, LGV Méditerranée, LGV Est, etc) was inaugurated in the 1990s and 2000s.

This alone would have been responsible for a big increase in French rail traffic.

UK rail infrastructure certainly received improvements during this era too, but besides HS1 it was mostly just renewing and upgrading existing tracks. Nothing like the thousands of km of new high speed rail that was built in France!


If you just look at France it may be tempted to conclude it must be TGV, but that's the same methodological problem: it grew in most of Europe by comparable amount in the period.

Also TGV is nice, but it doesn't explain why TER and Intercité (the two slower-speed regional networks) also experienced an influx of passengers during the period.

It's not TGV, it's not privatization and it is not Wiedervereinigung, it's a broader trend.


> "Also TGV is nice, but it doesn't explain why TER and Intercité (the two slower-speed regional networks) also experienced an influx of passengers during the period."

I don't entirely disagree with you, but rail lines don't function in isolation. If you introduce a new high speed main line, there is a network effect: connecting services will also see a boost in traffic from people travelling on other lines to reach the new one.


Cool story. Got evidence? I googled for a minute and found this official document:

"Thus, as shown in Figure 3, the modal share of rail has oscillated between 7 and 10% for almost 30 years, with a low point reached in 1995 following several years of crisis, and a maximum reached in 2011."

https://www.autorite-transports.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/0...

Here's Figure 3. https://share.google/images/58s3sPR3bQ1LbQEHT . Where's the increase?


> This is the pattern behind all UK privatisation. Foreign countries and shareholders benefited hugely, while prices of essential services exploded, and service quality degraded.

No kidding.

But of course, never underestimate the motivated reasoning of an HN user. After all, somebody made money off of the privatization. That could've been you, and you like making money, right?


Readers of a certain age will remember the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation products from Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy.

Every product - doors, lifts, toasters, personal massagers - was equipped with intensely annoying, positive, and sycophantic GPP (Genuine People Personality)™, and their robots were sold as Your Plastic Pal Who's Fun to be With.

Unfortunately the entire workforce were put up against a wall and shot during the revolution.


The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy describes the Marketing Department of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation as "a bunch of mindless jerks who'll be the first against the wall when the revolution comes” which fits with the current vibe.

A copy of Encyclopedia Galactica which fell through a rift in the space-time continuum from a thousand years in the future describes the Marketing Department of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation as "a bunch of mindless jerks who were the first against the wall when the revolution came."


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