Quarterly, monthly, whatever, ...it is the same problem. I'm talking about the dichotomy between optimizing for short-term results and maintaining a sustainable long-term vision (which does not necessarily devolve into a failed software project / team diaspora.)

If you have a good manager, you don't want them to be promoted because then it's a crap shoot whether you get another good one or not :) of course the pay raise is a compelling argument

I was only arguing against the idea that you can successfully keep your manager in the dark, you don't want that. You want a good manager who understands the problem domain well enough to anticipate these negative outcomes and who won't fixate on quarterly (or short-term) outcomes at the expense of long-term viability.

(A good manager also optimizes for your long-term success as well as their own!)

And it's not to say that optimizing for short-term goals is necessarily wrong every time. There's YAGNI – which is a perfectly reasonable argument to make at any time, but sometimes You Are Gonna Need It and there's an objective case in favor of not taking the shortcut because it will cost you in easily predictable ways.